Scott Bar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

Weather Forecast Discussion

240
FXUS66 KMFR 181252 CCA
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Medford OR
452 AM PST Thu Dec 18 2025

...Corrected typo in AVIATION discussion...

.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...

Key Points:

* Change/New Development: Between now and 8am
    - Freezing Rain/Drizzle potential:
        - Highway 138 between Diamond Lake and Highway 97
        - Highway 97 north of Highway 138 in Klamath County
        - 10-20% chance for very light icing (0.01"-0.02")
        - Hazardous driving conditions for morning commute
* Today thru Friday night: Moderate to Isolated Major Impacts
    - Snow: Heaviest Friday into Friday night
        - Snow levels dropping to ~3500-4000ft Friday
        - Snow locations/amounts dont warrant advisories/warnings
    - Rain: Moderate to heavy rainfall for westside areas
        - Heaviest rainfall along Cascades and west
        - Widepsread flooding not expected
        - Minor Flood: Myrtle Point (South Fork Coquille River)
            - Forecast to go into minor flood stage Fri. night
    - Wind: Strong winds for coastal areas and eastside areas
* Sunday - Monday
    - Moderate rainfall: coastal areas, northern Cali, and eastside
    - Light Snowfall for elevations mainly above 4500ft:
       - Mainly Cascades and northern California
* Dec 24th/25th:
    - Snow levels dropping to around 4500
    - Heavy rain potential for northern California
    - Heavy Snow potential for Mount Shasta and western Siskiyou

Further Details:

A notable change has occured from previous forecast. There is a very
small chance for freezing rain/drizzle with light ice accumulations
(0.01"-0.02") around Crater Lake (Highway 138) and areas north along
highway 97 from Highway 138 (Klamath County). Any ice accumulation
will create hazardous driving conditions. While this is a low end
chance, it is a notable update given the risk of ice on roads. The
surface temperatures will be the biggest factor in accumulations.
Forecast soundings do show a warm nose above surface temperatures
that briefly drop to around freezing; however, surface temperatures
will be the biggest limiting factor here for ice accumulations.
Surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing for these
areas by late morning, so the window of opportunity is small.
Nevertheless, felt worthy of discussion given the potential impacts
with increased travel for the holidays.

We continue to see persistent troughing over/near the Gulf of Alaska
with smaller pieces of energy kicking out ahead of this main area of
low pressure. This will continue to bring rounds of precipitation
across the region which may result in moderate to isolated heavy
rain, light snowfall, and strong wind speeds/gusts. A pattern change
could evolve around middle of next week.

Snowfall Thursday through Friday night continues to indicate
relatively light accumulations at the forecast elevations and
therefore limited impacts. However, rainfall amounts will still be
notable as another atmospheric river event begins to unfold across
the region. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, there may
be isolated areas of nuisance type flooding as rivers are currently
running low. That said, indications continue for minor river
flooding at Myrtle Point (South Fork Coquille River) which could go
into Minor Flood stage Friday night (~10pm). Additionally, Powers
(South Fork Coquille River) could go into action stage (below Minor
Flood stage). The forecast for Roseburg at Deer Creek has decreased
significantly, and is no longer forecast to go into action stage.
The heaviest rainfall through this stretch will be for westside
areas, especially along/near the coast, as well as the Cascades
before the switch over to snow. Timing for highest amounts will be
Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Rivers may take a while to
"react" to rainfall, so we could see delays in some river rises.

During this stretch (Today-Friday night), probabilities for 1.00" or
greater over 6 hrs is roughly 60%-95% for all of Curry County,
western Josephine County, most of Coos County, higher elevations of
Douglas County (outskirts near county line), and Cascades before
switch over to snow Fri/Fri night. Fortunately, this is over a long
period, and our rivers are running low, so flooding potential will
remain low with only isolated river flooding expected. If rivers
were running higher, and this rainfall came in a shorter time
period, we may have a different story on our hands.

Regarding snowfall Thursday through Friday night, we continue to see
light snowfall amounts. Ensemble data continues to show a tighter
spread and these trends have increased confidence that impacts will
remain limited/minor. In other words, not expecting any advisories
or warnings for snowfall Thursday/Friday.

Thereafter, moderate rainfall amounts expected Sunday into Monday,
especially northern California. Snow amounts through this stretch do
not look impactful and will be limited to higher elevations.

Around Christmas Eve/Christmas, there is increasing confidence for
impactful rain in addition to potential snowfall across northern
California. This will coincide with the pattern change as a stronger
upper low develops off the coast of California. There will be an
associated strong surface low as well. Models are in pretty good
agreement here, so we could have travel concerns around this
timeframe for heavy rain. At this time, it doesn`t look like impacts
for snow will be too concerning given snow levels around 4500 feet,
but that is not certain at this time.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

TAF sites are currently experiencing VFR conditions. However,
conditions are expected to deteriorate later today, and more so
through the overnight period as the next round of rainfall comes
in with a passing front. Conditions are expected to drop down to
MVFR--or close to it--with ceilings around 3000-4000 feet. Wind
speeds will also be on the breezy side for the terminals ahead of
the front.


&&

.MARINE...Update 330 AM PST Thursday, December 18, 2025...A
strong front will move through the region late today/tonight, and
conditions will quickly deteriorate today through Friday. Winds
will quickly ramp up to widespread gales, with storm force winds
developing from Gold Beach northward within 40 nm from shore.
Expect widespread south winds of 30 to 40 kt with gusts around 50
kt, with storm force winds of 40 to 45 kt and gusts around 60 kt.
Wind driven seas will become very steep and chaotic at 18 to 24
ft. A Storm Force Warning remains in effect this morning through
Thursday evening, with a Gale Warning in effect for all other
areas.

The front will move southeast over the marine waters tonight with
winds shifting from south to northwest and diminishing, first
over the northern waters, then in the southern waters by Friday
morning. Wind speeds will be much weaker Friday morning behind the
front (compared to today) and will remain relatively lighter
through the weekend. Seas are expected to remain elevated Friday
morning, then they will also gradually diminish later Friday
afternoon into the weekend. Lastly, It`s also worth noting,
moderate to heavy rain will accompany both fronts resulting in
limited visibility.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...A strong storm will bring storm force
winds to the marine waters and strong damaging winds to the coast
today. These winds will build very steep ocean waves that will
result in large breaking waves of 20 to 25 ft in the surf zone.
This will lead to hazardous beach conditions today for area
beaches from Port Orford northward. If you have plans to visit
area beaches today, stay away from the surf zone during this time
as beaches and shorelines will become dangerous places. Jetties,
rocks and logs are NOT safe. Inundation of low lying areas is
possible and this could result in beach erosion or damage to
exposed infrastructure.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Friday for
     ORZ023>025-029>031.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Friday for
     ORZ021-022-030-031.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this
     evening for ORZ021.

CA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Friday for
     CAZ081-084-085.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Friday for
     CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST early
     this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Storm Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-
     376.

&&

$$

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